San Diego Home Sales Hit Third-Lowest Ever: 27,117 Transactions in 2025 as Move-Up Market Dies
San Diego County recorded just 27,117 home sales in 2025—the third-lowest year since record-keeping began in 1988, according to Attom Data Solutions. That's roughly two-thirds of the 40,000+ transactions seen in 2019, the last "normal" pre-pandemic year. "The move-up market kind of died," says Bill McBride, economist and author of the Calculated Risk blog. "Everyone is sitting on these 3% mortgages." From Mission Beach to Clairemont, from University Heights to Chula Vista, homeowners across San Diego County are financially paralyzed by locked-in rates. With half of California's real estate agents completing zero transactions in two years, this market crisis creates massive opportunities for cash buyers who can unstick deals that traditional financing can't.
The Numbers Behind San Diego's Housing Paralysis
The market's downward trajectory tells a stark story. After 25,317 sales in 2023 (the lowest ever) and 26,235 in 2024, 2025's 27,117 transactions represent only marginal improvement. Real estate employment in San Diego dropped 3.2% year-over-year to 24,000 workers in December, reflecting an industry struggling to survive on historically low transaction volumes.
Inventory remains painfully tight at roughly 5,000 available homes countywide—about double pandemic lows but still lean by historical standards. Meanwhile, median prices hover around $900,000 for single-family homes, with some reports showing $1 million in late 2025. The disconnect is brutal: whether in Hillcrest, South Park, or Bay Park, sellers stuck in homes they've outgrown can't afford to move because trading a 3% mortgage for today's 6%+ rates would mean doubling their monthly payment.
"More than 80% of homeowners in America hold a mortgage rate below 5%," notes mortgage data from the Union-Tribune's reporting. For San Diego sellers, moving means "giving up their low mortgage interest rate and taking on a mortgage rate that in some cases would be double what they currently have."
Why Cash Buyers Are the Only Solution for Trapped Sellers
This market paralysis creates perfect conditions for cash transactions. When traditional financed buyers require 30-50 day closings, appraisals that kill deals in overpriced neighborhoods like Pacific Beach, La Jolla, or Downtown San Diego, and inspection contingencies that scare off sellers who can't afford pre-sale repairs, cash buyers eliminate every friction point.
Sellers facing life changes—job relocations, divorces, inherited properties, downsizing retirees—can't wait 6-12 months hoping for "the perfect financed buyer" in a market with only 27,117 annual transactions. Cash buyers close in 7-14 days, accept homes as-is, and don't need appraisals or mortgage approval. In neighborhoods from Point Loma to North Park, from Little Italy to Allied Gardens, from Serra Mesa to Normal Heights, that speed and certainty is often worth more than waiting for a slightly higher financed offer that might fall through.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did San Diego home sales drop to third-lowest levels since 1988?
The primary cause is the "mortgage rate lock-in effect." Homeowners who purchased or refinanced at 3-4% rates between 2020-2022 can't afford to move because new mortgages cost 6%+ in 2026. This creates inventory shortages (only 5,000 homes available) and kills the move-up market where families would normally sell starter homes to buy larger properties.
How does selling to a cash buyer help if I'm stuck with a low mortgage rate?
Cash buyers solve the timing and certainty problem. While you'll still face higher rates on your next purchase, you can close in 7-14 days instead of 30-50, avoid repair costs for picky financed buyers, and eliminate appraisal risks. If your life circumstances require moving (job change, divorce, downsizing), waiting 6+ months for the right financed buyer costs more than a slightly lower cash price.
Are cash buyers taking advantage of distressed San Diego homeowners?
Legitimate cash buyers provide a valuable service in a paralyzed market. With 24,000 real estate jobs lost and half of agents completing zero transactions in two years, the traditional market isn't functioning for many sellers. Cash offers provide speed, certainty, and solutions for sellers who can't afford to wait or make repairs—that's market value, not exploitation.
If you're one of thousands of San Diego County homeowners—whether you own a condo in Mission Valley, a bungalow in City Heights, or a family home in Del Cerro—trapped between needing to move and fearing higher mortgage rates, a cash sale might be your fastest path forward across San Diego County.
Sources & Citations
- San Diego Union-Tribune - 'Move-up market kind of died': San Diego home sales last year were among the lowest ever
- Dawn Sells San Diego - San Diego County Single Family Housing Market Spring 2025 Trends and Forecast
- Norada Real Estate - San Diego Housing Market: Trends and Forecast 2026